Airlines in the Asia-Pacific region are forecast to cop a 35 per cent fall in profits per passenger this year.

Delivered by the International Air Transport Association overnight Australian time, the analysis flags a 70 per cent increase in global jet fuel prices and falling Asian currencies against the US dollar.

The international airline trade association forecasts profit per passenger across all providers in the Asia-Pacific region will fall from $US5.30 in 2025 to $US3.40 this year – a 35.9 per cent fall. Net margin is expected to slump 40 per cent.

“It is a tough year for all airlines, but especially for those whose balance sheets have not yet recovered from Covid-19,” association director-general Willie Walsh said in Brazil on Sunday local time.

The executive drew a colourful analogy for the falling per passenger profit.

“Under the circumstances, that shows resilience … but it won’t even buy you a hot dog at most of the FIFA World Cup venues, and it does not leave much of a buffer, should other costs or taxes start rising.”

In mid-April jet fuel had already climbed by 125 per cent of the pre-Iran war price, forcing Qantas and Virgin to hike prices and cut the number of flights. Australia’s two major airlines have been contacted for comment on these latest figures, and both pointed NewsWire to their respective latest company announcements.

Qantas told the ASX in mid-April that it had changed international routes, reduced the number of domestic flights by 5 per cent and increased ticket prices in the face of surging oil prices.

There was strong demand for international travel to Europe, however, as airlines and passengers shirked the volatile and dangerous Middle East.

Qantas pulled planes from the US and domestic Australian routes for more flights to Paris and Rome.

Qantas’ share price is down 11.5 per cent so far this year but has rebounded 8.6 per cent over the past month.

On April 15, Virgin told the sharemarket it too had raised ticket prices and reduced flights as the price of jet fuel doubled across March and April.

“Virgin Australia’s fuel suppliers continue to provide assurances regarding the near-term supply of aviation fuel to support its operations well into May 2026,” the company said. Virgin Australia’s share price has plummeted 25.4 per cent in 2026 but similarly regained 14.5 per cent over the past month.

Last month, the Australian government secured 100 million litres of jet fuel from China that were scheduled to arrive from early June.

Speaking at the International Air Transport Association’s AGM in Rio de Janeiro on Sunday, Mr Walsh said the outlook for the airlines had gone from bad to worse.

“War-related disruptions in the Middle East and rising fuel costs have shifted the outlook for airlines to the worse,” he said.

“Globally, airlines are expected to see profitability halve compared to 2025. Profits will shrink from $(US)45bn in 2025 to (US)23bn this year, and margins will shrink from 4.2 per cent to 2 per cent.”

For Asia-Pacific, the international association points to the region’s heavy reliance on crude oil imports from the Gulf as an acute pressure on refineries.

“Some Asia-Pacific carriers are benefiting from shifting traffic flows linked to the Middle East conflict, particularly on Europe-Asia routes,” Mr Walsh said

“Cost pressures are amplified by the depreciation of several Asian currencies, which raises the local currency cost of US dollar-denominated expenses, most notably fuel.”