China’s new beef import quotas reshaping global beef trade, Australian producers to make adjustments

China’s beef import quotas introduced at the turn of the year are reshaping the global trade, with Australian exports set to be diverted to “alternative” markets. China’s Ministry of Commerce put the cap on beef imports on New Year’s Eve, with Australia allocated a quota of 205,000 tonnes annually. Supply beyond that threshold will be hit with a 55 per cent tax. Other countries were whacked with similar restrictions in a move China claimed would support their local producers — China in 2025 imported 25 per cent of its beef supply. It’s understood two main WA companies ship to China, V&V Walsh and Harvey Beef. Report lead author and Rabobank senior analyst animal protein Angus Gidley-Baird said the new quota would mean the potential diversion of about 100,000 million tonnes of Australian beef to alternative markets. “RaboResearch is expecting Australia’s 2026 beef production volumes will be similar to 2025’s historically high levels — and therefore export volumes to be similar,” he said. “And these high Australian volumes will need to find other markets.” Mr Gidley-Baird said the US could be an option as an alternative market due to stronger beef import demand, but lean trim beef forms the bulk of the trade demand. Australian beef exports to the US would also face competition from Brazilian products. South Korea and Japan were also identified as alternative markets for the overflow beef. “Distributing Australian product across a range of markets — most likely through South-East Asia — appears to be the best solution,” Mr Gidley-Baird said. “But based on 2025 volumes, Australia will be relying on an expansion of markets to accommodate additional volumes. “This is likely to increase as we move towards the middle of the year — in 2025, Australia reached the new import quote volume between July and August.” Australia is expected to continue churning out historically high beef production numbers — the new year kicked off with strong prices and large volumes. “However, global markets remain strong and prices for heavy finished cattle and cows remain at historically high levels, which may support confidence levels,” Mr Gidley-Baird said. “Prices for younger stock are closer to the five-year average, reflecting a more balanced situation in the producer side of the market with no strong restocking or destocking activity.”