Election analyst Antony Green flags ‘electoral earthquake’ as One Nation support hits 35pc in country seats

The Nationals’ decision to leave the Coalition is likely being driven by the rise of One Nation in national opinion polls that could lead to an “electoral earthquake”, according to well-known pollster Antony Green.

One Nation support was estimated at 22 per cent and the Coalition’s at 21 per cent in a Newspoll this week, the first time the far-right party has outpolled the Opposition.

While Nationals leaders have portrayed the Coalition breakdown as being driven by policy differences and the treatment of shadow ministers, the former ABC election analyst argued the country-based party is fearful of losing seats to One Nation, especially in Queensland.

Coalition seats at risk include Wide Bay, Hinkler, Dawson, Flynn and Capricornia, Mr Green said.

“We have credible polls producing a 20 per cent vote for a party that has never polled anything like that before,” Mr Green told The Nightly.

“I think it is influencing the National Party because they are under direct attack. What the National Party is trying to do is to get the Liberal Party to move right to resolve their problems.”

Long-term implications

By separating itself from the Liberal Party, the Nationals will be free to adopt more nationalist policies appealing to conservative voters in country areas.

The decision could have long-term implications for politics by weakening the Opposition and strengthening the Labor Party, which the last Newspoll calculated leads the Coalition by 55 to 45 per cent after expected preferences have been allocated.

The Coalition split was triggered by the decision this week by Nationals MPs to oppose a Labor Government law designed to ban extremist Islamic group Hizb ut-Tahrir and the neo-nazi National Socialist Network.

One Nation campaigned against the law, which it claimed could catch other religious or political groups.

Withdrawing from the Coalition on Thursday, Nationals leader David Littleproud said three of his “courageous senators” had been “disrespected” when they were told to resign for voting against the laws.

“Sussan Ley cannot force us to vote one way or another,” Mr Littleproud said at a press conference in Brisbane. “I think it is time for the Liberal Party to work out who they are and what they are.”

One Nation lead

Mr Green, one of Australia’s most experienced election analysts, did not calculate how many seats the Nationals might lose if One Nation sustained its support to the next election. But he argued that a similar burst of support for One Nation in the 1998 Queensland election damaged the Nationals more than any other party.

One Nation has never won a seat in the Lower House. But Mr Green said a national primary vote of 22 per cent meant support for One Nation in some country electorates was above 35 per cent, which would place One Nation above all other parties.

Because most Liberal and National voters allocate their preferences to One Nation before the Labor Party, One Nation will likely win any seat where it secures the most primary votes.

At the Queensland election in 1998, One Nation won 11 of the 89 seats with 23 per cent of the State-wide vote. Based on the Newspoll,

In the past, the Coalition has won power by attracting affluent city voters to the Liberal Party and conservative country voters to the Nationals. That system is breaking down as independent “teal” candidates capture the inner cities and One Nation threatens the Nationals from the right.

Sentenced to death

One Nation leader and founder Pauline Hanson raised the prospect this week that her party could be banned under the new law that outlaws groups that engage in “hate crime”, which includes “creating a serious risk to the health or safety” of a race of national group.

“One Nation could be targeted with this rule,” Senator Hanson said on Sky this week. “It’s quite interesting now the number of people who are actually coming forward to want to be candidates: incredible people, high-profile people.”

Former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce switched to One Nation last month, raising expectations other Nationals might follow.

The latest One Nation publicity stunt is an animated film produced by Senator Hanson and her chief adviser, James Ashby, that has secured one-off screenings in mainstream cinemas in all capital cities from Monday, January 26.

Called A Super Progressive Movie, the film tells the story of a “white, straight CIS-gendered male” sentenced to death for “misogyny in the first degree”.