RBA interest rates live updates: Reserve bank primed for back-to-back mortgage blows for suffering homeowners

... and why, as a homeowner with a mortgage, building that home loan buffer is so, so important.

Just four weeks ago, Treasurer Jim Chalmers declared that the worst inflation challenge was now behind us and spent a good amount of time defending the Albanese Government and his fiscal policy after inflation soared at the start of the year.

Dr Chalmers doubled down on his comments from 2025, where he said the worst of the inflation challenge was behind us.

Then came the bombs in Iran, a choked Strait of Hormuz and the reminder that life is never that easy.

Ahike by the RBA today will push owner-occupier mortgage rates above 6 per cent, warns Canstar.

For someone with a $600,000 mortgage and 25 years remaining, this would add $91 to in their minimum monthly repayments.

Taken together with February’s rise, the two back-to-back hikes would be $181 a month.

The comparison site its tracking shows in the past two weeks, 27 lenders have hiked at least one fixed rate ahead of today’s decision as they move to factor in higher borrowing expenses.

On the savings front, 41 banks have increased at least one term deposit rate, as banks recalculate the possibility for higher deposit costs.

What does that meanif the RBA hikes today?

A 0.25 percentage point hike would push the average owner-occupier variable rate into the 6s to an estimated 6.01 per cent. This would be the first time this average was above 5 per cent since April 2025.

A competitive rate is likely to sit at 5.75 per cent or less, with more than 40 lenders offering at least one owner-occupier rate under this mark, while the lowest variable rate is likely to land at or just below 5.50 per cent.

There’s one group of experts calling on the RBA to resist the temptation to lift rates today and wait until the full economic impact of the Middle East conflict is known.

Finance Brokers Association of Australia says while economic triggers may exist for the board to raise the cash rate, it warned “these are not usual times”.

“Australians are yet to experience the cost of living increases that are predicted to hit soon due to the Middle East conflict,” said FBAA interim CEO Peter White.

“We expect that not only will fuel costs increase but this will flow through to other supply chain increases and potentially add hundreds of dollars every month to the average household budget.

“f interest rates rise as well, many mortgage holders may struggle to meet the increased payments.

“This is particularly the case for first home buyers.”

Mr White said a pause today would “prioritise the financial and emotional wellbeing of Australians facing an uncertain immediate future”.

We’re an hour away from the RBA decision ... and two hours from Michele Bullock’s post-call presser.

If it’s a hold, we’ll hopefully find out what the next few meeting may have in store for homeowners.

If it’s a hike, we’ll hear just how seriously the board is taking the potenial ripple effects of the Middle East war ... and just6 how far it’s willing to go to keep inflation in check.

The S&P/ASX200 has managed only single-digit gains after the first few hours of trade as investors await the outcome of today’s decision on official interest rates by the Resreve Bank.

The local bourse was up just 8.2 points to 8591.6 at 1pm AEDT.

The market has been on a rollercoaster ride over the past two weeks as buyers and sellers get used to conflicting reports about the war in Iran.

Only gains by real estate, mining, banking and utility stocks was keeping the ASX’s head above water.

IT stocks lost one per cent, consumer discretionaries tumbled 0.9 per cent and health care companies shed a similar margin.

Gold miners made up the bulk of the top-five performers, with Pantoro Gold, West African Resources, Ora Banda Mining and Catalyst Metals adding between 5 and 10.5 per cent.

Online retailer Temple and Webster was the biggest loser, dropping 8 per cent. New Hope Coal, Zip Co., Lynas Rare Earths and Pro Medicus were also among the top-five laggards.

Westpac boss Anthony Miller says the recent oil price shock is adding to a complicated picture for the Reserve Bank as it navigates inflationary pressure.

Markets have very quickly repriced, underscoring how the outlook has changed and toughening the RBA’s role, Mr Miller told a banking summit in Sydney yesterday.

“Things have moved very fast,” Mr Miller said. “This war and its disruption to the global energy supply chain is a further challenge,” with other factors already nudging inflation expectations higher, he said.

Money markets are pricing a two-in-three chance of a hike today and see more tightening to come.

On Sunday, Treasurer Jim Chalmers warned Australia’s inflation rate could exceed 4.5 per cent as oil prices climb. The RBA targets inflation at the midpoint of its 2 to 3 per cent band.

Despite the elevated projections for further hikes in Australia, it remains “remarkable” how well people are navigating this environment, he said. Non-performing loans are “the lowest we’ve seen for some time”.

Major fuel suppliers, independent retailers and automotive associations have been hauled into an emergency meeting with the consumer watchdog after prices spiked at the bowser following the war in the Middle East.

“The ACCC are hauling the petrol suppliers and retailers in for an explanation,” Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers said.

“Some of the steep increases in petrol prices we saw shortly after the outbreak of this conflict have really raised concerns at the ACCC..”

Among those requested to attend are Ampol, the NRMA, BP Australia, and 7-Eleven.

The Government has insisted Australia’s supply is secure despite reports of skyrocketing prices and shortages at petrol pumps in rural and regional areas.

A crackdown on price gouging was subsequently announced last week.

Read more here.

Stagflation is the economic equivalent of a double whammy.

On one hand, you have rising costs for everyday goods and services (which won’t be helped by the Middle East conflict and the choking of global oil supplies which - despite US President Donald Trump’s assertions that the war is “very complete, pretty much” on March 9 - still rumbles on).

On the other is slow economic growth. That’s us.

Australian Bureau of Statistics data out earlier this month showed gross domestic product grew at 2.6 per cent in 2025 - the highest rate in nearly three years.

Despite the uptick in activity, economists warn the economy is not in rude health.

Given growth was not driven by productivity improvements, it indicated it would likely worsen inflation, BDO chief economist Anders Magnusson said at the time.

“The release includes a concerning signal about productivity,” he said.

Stagflation is a central bank’s worst nightmare, essential because the usual tools used to fix one problem can make the other worse:

The May Federal Budget may include more government spending to address cost-of-living pressures, Finance Minister Katy Gallagher said, as householders brace for another rate rise today.

“If there is another interest rate increase, it will hit households hard,” Senator Gallagher told ABC News Breakfast on Tuesday morning.

“Our focus will always be on how do we address cost of living, and how do we finalise and put those finishing touches on the budget that will be handed down in May.”

She was asked directly if the Government would provide more targeted measures to help Australians cope if rates go up.

“The Government will make those budget decisions based on the economic circumstances at the time,” she said.

“Obviously there’s uncertainty and volatility particularly in the global economy based on some of the events in the Middle East, so, that presents some challenge.

“But we will always make those made on what we need to do for the current situation.”

The is already under fire from the opposition over its spending and its impact on inflation.